Monte Carlo Forecasting and Its Limits

Investors can use Monte Carlo forecasts to understand the relative probabilities of various return scenarios. But there are important shortcomings of this method.

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Portfolio Management for the Paranoid

Risk tolerance and level of trust are distinct considerations in portfolio construction. How do you create a portfolio for the low trust investor?

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Meta Strategies: The Covered Call Covered Call

We have ETFs for almost everything today. But what happens when you use the ETF's strategy on the ETF itself?

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Leveraged ETFs: The Data Says We're Missing Out

Leveraged ETFs are risky. And you've probably been warned against using them for the right reasons. But, when managed properly, can they be part of a longer-term investor's portfolio? The data says yes.

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Beating the Market in 2022 - How I Did It and How I'm Thinking About 2023

My portfolio performed well in 2022 and I was fortunate enough to earn double digit returns in a down year for the market.

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